Oscar nomination forecast

Expect some surprises when nominations are announced tomorrow

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According to Shea, Mo'Nique ("Precious") is the only "sure thing" as far as the Best Supporting Actress nominations are concerned.

Everyone may still be buzzing about last night's Grammy Awards, but the Academy Awards are just around the corner. In fact, the Oscar nominees are announced tomorrow. There are a few guarantees ("Avatar" for Best Picture), but there are sure to be a few surprises as well. Below are my predictions for the major categories. Consider anything in bold a shoo-in.

BEST PICTURE

  • Avatar
  • The Hurt Locker
  • Up in the Air
  • Precious
  • Inglourious Basterds
  • Up
  • District 9
  • The Blind Side
  • The Hangover
  • Star Trek

With the Best Picture category expanding to 10 nominees, I fully expect the Academy to include several blockbusters like "Up," "Star Trek" and "The Hangover" in its nominees to garner more mainstream interest in the awards show. Don't be surprised, however, if "(500) Days of Summer" or "An Education" sneak in.

BEST ACTOR

  • Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart
  • George Clooney, Up in the Air
  • Colin Firth, A Single Man
  • Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
  • Morgan Freeman, Invictus

I don't see this category shaking out much differently than the Golden Globes. Peter Sarsgaard might sneak in for his performance in "An Education," but I doubt the Academy will pass on Freeman.

BEST ACTRESS

  • Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
  • Gabourey Sidibe, Precious
  • Meryl Streep, Julie and Julia
  • Carey Mulligan, An Education
  • Zoe Saldana, Avatar

Saldana and Helen Mirren ("The Last Station") will fight for the last spot. Most educated guessers would say Mirren has it, but I have an inkling one of the "Avatar" cast will earn a nomination. My money's on Saldana.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

  • Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
  • Christopher Plummer, The Last Station
  • Woody Harrelson, The Messenger
  • Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones
  • Christian McKay, Me and Orson Welles

Because of the generally mixed reviews "The Lovely Bones" has received, Tucci may get bumped for Matt Damon ("Invictus") or Anthony Mackie ("The Hurt Locker"). According to several insiders, McKay isn't safe either. It doesn't really matter, though. Waltz will waltz his way to the stage to accept the award in March.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

  • Mo'Nique, Precious
  • Penelope Cruz, Nine
  • Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air
  • Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air
  • Julianne Moore, A Single Man

This category is the most difficult to predict. The reaction to "Nine" was so bad that Cruz might not get a nomination. And rarely are there two contenders from the same film, so that might knock one of the wonderful "Up in the Air" actresses out of the mix. Don't be surprised if Maggie Gyllenhaal ("Crazy Heart") or Diane Kruger ("Inglourious Basterds") is nominated tomorrow rather than Cruz, Kendrick, Farmiga or Moore.

BEST DIRECTOR

  • James Cameron, Avatar
  • Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
  • Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
  • Jason Reitman, Up in the Air
  • Lee Daniels, Precious

I doubt Daniels won't be nominated, but you never know. Clint Eastwood ("Invictus"), Neill Blomkamp ("District 9") or Lone Scherfig ("An Education") could be possible replacements.

...AND THE BIGGEST SURPRISE OF ALL

I'm calling it now. Ed Helms' "Stu's Song" from "The Hangover" steals a Best Song nomination. Maybe it's just wishful thinking, but I've got a good feeling about this one.

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